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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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