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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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