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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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