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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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