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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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