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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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