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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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