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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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