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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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