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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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