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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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