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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
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Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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