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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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