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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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