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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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