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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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