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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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