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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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