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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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