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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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