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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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