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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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