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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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