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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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