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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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