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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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