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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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