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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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