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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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