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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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