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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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