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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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