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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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