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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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