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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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