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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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