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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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