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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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