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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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