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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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