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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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Showing 111 to 115 news of total 6871 |
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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