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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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