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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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