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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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