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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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