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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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