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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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