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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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