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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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