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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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