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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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